Will alliance boost chances of anti-immigration candidates being elected as TDs?

The National Alliance electoral pact of parties and Independents with far-right views on immigration was formed in a bid to boost the chances of its candidates taking seats in the forthcoming general election. It is an effort to avoid splitting the vote between candidates running on similar platforms. But will it actually increase the likelihood any of the 19 candidates ending up as TDs?
The level of support for the parties in the alliance – Ireland First, the National Party and The Irish People – should not be overestimated. They, along with the Irish Freedom Party (IFP) – which is not part of the pact – won less than 2 per cent of the national vote in June’s local election and around 5 per cent in the European election.
Co-ordination in some key constituencies could help at least some candidates in the general election, but their chances of election are far from assured.
The best-known figure in the National Alliance – Derek Blighe – got a significant vote of just over 25,000 first preferences in the Ireland South European election constituency. He secured almost 900 votes in the local election but missed out, narrowly enough, on a seat on Cork County Council.
Blighe, who disputes the far-right label – is running in Cork North Central in the general election. He perhaps has the best chance of alliance members of winning a seat, but would need multiples of his local election vote to become a TD.
The National Party’s Patrick Quinlan, an elected representative on Fingal County Council, is running in Dublin West. Quinlan got 456 votes in the Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart area in June and again would need considerably more for a Dáil seat.
The National Alliance is also hampered in that while it has an electoral pact, others running on similar platforms will be running competing candidates.
Hermann Kelly, the leader of the IFP – which has used the slogan “Ireland is full” – is running for the Dáil in Louth where the National Alliance has announced Derek McElearney of The Irish People as its candidate.
Kelly says his party’s policies are “libertarian” and “nationalist” rather than far right, and that it has “a clear agenda” on a range of issues – “not just immigration, but energy, crime, taxation etc”.
He said the IFP had been approached to participate in the National Alliance but declined to do so, in part because it is not a registered political party and its name will not be on the ballot paper.
Meanwhile, well-known anti-immigration politicians who won council seats last June, such as Gavin Pepper are not among the National Alliance’s list of candidates. Pepper confirmed he is running as an independent candidate in Dublin Northwest and is not part of any alliance. He said he is “against illegal immigration” but he is not far-right.
Fellow Dublin City councillor Malachy Steenson confirmed he is running in Dublin Central. “I am not ‘far right’ and don’t know anyone who is, and I don’t believe that the National Alliance fits into that category. It is irrelevant whether I was approached by them. I wish them and all nationalists well in the upcoming election.”
Other similar figures are expected to run elsewhere, meaning the alliance will not have it all its own way in its bid to sew up support among parts of the electorate for whom immigration is a key issue.